As-Is / To-Be
Compare the current and desired states using consistent measures, then separate the observed gap from possible causes and solutions.
Use this comparison when a team has many proposed actions but has not agreed on the problem. Describe the same subject, measure, and observation window on both sides. The three-part diagram is a working aid for gap analysis, not a causal model.
An observed current state, its evidence and measurement rules, and a desired state with a rationale and time horizon. Mark provisional targets explicitly.
A bounded gap statement and a next investigation or test. A proposed action remains separate from evidence that it will close the gap.
How to use it
- Define the subject and record the period, denominator, and evidence for the current state.
- Describe the desired state using the same definitions; state its timing and whether it is a requirement, benchmark, or hypothesis.
- Compare the two states. For rates, distinguish percentage-point differences from relative changes.
- List explanations still to verify and choose a proportionate next check before committing to a solution.
Keep its limits in mind
A target is not a forecast or a commitment. Different populations or observation windows may make a comparison invalid. The gap alone does not explain why it exists.
Define a repeat-purchase problem before choosing a tactic
Fictional retail example. A team is considering a follow-up process for first-time members. Its quarterly target is a test hypothesis, not a forecast.
On a small screen, scroll across the diagram to read it.
Measurement check: Confirm that every included member has completed 28 days of observation before comparing cohorts.
Interpretation: The change from 18% to 26% is 8 percentage points, or about 44.4% relative to 18%. Neither calculation establishes a cause.
Next step: Define the trial groups and measurement window before testing follow-up. Do not assume coupons or another tactic will produce the target.
Check your work
- Both sides describe the same subject and metric.
- Each cohort has the observation time needed for that metric.
- The target has an explicit basis and is not presented as a guaranteed outcome.
- A numerical gap is separate from a proposed cause or intervention.
Method references
Put the method to work
Use this framework in the English Workspace with early access. Local generation copies clearly labeled fields; you can edit the diagram afterwards.
Open in WorkspacePractice with an example
Compare signup cohorts, activation rates, and observation windows before deciding what to investigate.
When new users stop returning, check activation first →