BizThinkFrame

Find the focus, make your work clear.

Find a method for your next update. Make the facts, judgments and next steps clear.

Full article

How can you distinguish descriptions, explanations, forecasts and recommendations?

The situation

Fictional scenario

We send the numbers every week. Why is the next action still unclear?

Which statements are observations, which are causal explanations, and what does the proposal depend on?

I’ll state what happened, then separate causal hypotheses, future conditions and proposed action.

What is getting in the way

Description, diagnosis, prediction and prescription answer four different questions. Later stages are not automatically more reliable, and not every update needs a forecast. With limited evidence, the appropriate action may be investigation.

Method and tool

Move from description to a testable action

Compare the categories and the evidence each needs. Classification does not turn a hypothesis or proposal into a fact.

At a glance

Move from description to a testable action

  1. 01
    Describe · what happened

    State definitions, scope and observation.

  2. 02
    Diagnose · why

    Connect explanations to evidence and label unproven causes.

  3. 03
    Predict · what may happen under which conditions

    Retain assumptions and uncertainty; do not invent probabilities without a basis.

  4. 04
    Act · what to do and how to review

    Connect the proposal to evidence, action and an outcome check.

Keep evidence gaps and unapproved arrangements explicit.
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